PVO: How Albo WINNING the election could be a poisoned chalice (2025)

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The Easter break hasn't been kind to Peter Dutton. The latest Ipsos poll, exclusively commissioned by Daily Mail Australia, reveals the opposition leader's popularity continues to lag behind that of the Prime Minister.

But in a sense, we knew that already. Labor is clearly heading towards victory and voters know it: the poll also revealed a clear majority of Australians are confident Anthony Albanese will win a second term in power.

Yet despite the certainty surrounding Labor's impending victory, and the growing popularity of the PM as Peter Dutton's negatives grow, Australians are deeply concerned about the likely outcome.

That's right; the Ipsos poll also revealed that 52 per cent of voters are concerned about Labor making a deal with the Greens when forming a minority government.

While Labor strategists are increasingly buoyant at the prospect of Albo retaining his narrow majority - by winning seats off the Coalition and the Greens to offset any losses in net terms - voters clearly don't agree.

They worry that in victory, the PM will be forced to cut deals with Adam Bandt's minority party or risk a vote of no confidence on the floor of the House of Representatives, potentially forcing another election sometime during the coming three-year term.

The Greens tell us a lot about the state of mind of most voters. They haven't been impressed by the Opposition Leader's campaign or narrative, and Albo's approach on the campaign trail has helped him overcome their negative sentiments towards the PM.

But that hasn't dampened fears for the future, with what might happen in a minority parliament ranking at the top of that list.

Even though Albo has said he won’t cut any deals with Bandt, voters clearly aren’t confident about that.

Bandt has used the campaign to claim he’ll pressure Albo to back a raft of radical policies if the Greens are co-opted into a minority government coalition of sorts. That includes high spending and high taxing initiatives, which mainstream Australia is clearly worried about.

Negative gearing and capital gains tax concessions - gone.

The Ipsos figure presents a challenge for the PM, mostly in victory but also potentially in the final week of campaigning.

The doomsday scenario for Labor is that fears about the Greens force some to shift their voters, although it’s just as likely that such fears bake in a more stable Labor win given the PM’s growing popularity.

The real challenge is further on the horizon. In a second term Albo needs to stand by his rejections of doing deals with the Greens, because if he’s seen to make joint policy moves, you can bet the Coalition in opposition will amplify the move as breaking his election pledge not to do so. Thus playing into the fears voters expressed in this latest Ipsos poll.

We will find out next week how Labor’s two-party vote is tracking according to our Ipsos numbers, giving a clearer sense of what result Australia is on track for at this year’s election.

The fact Albo is the most popular prime minister since Malcolm Turnbull in 2016 according to the poll doesn’t necessarily lock in a comfortable win, nor a comfortable aftermath for the PM.

Turnbull won the 2016 election with the narrowest of victories, losing a swathe of seats and scraping over the line with 76 seats in the 150 seat chamber. It all unravelled quickly thereafter for the then-PM, as factional opponents circled and Turnbull’s authority quickly waned.

Could that be Albo’s future even in victory? It’s a risk, especially if he goes backwards despite winning, just as Turnbull did.

Albo going backwards would also all but guarantee that the Greens become the kingmakers in a hung parliament, which is exactly that the majority of polled voters are most concerned about.

Peter DuttonAnthony Albanese

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