Institute for the Study of War (2025)

Russia condemned the recent US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities on June 22 amid reports that Iran's foreign minister will meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on June 23.

Russian President Vladimir Putin's long-term demands for full Ukrainian capitulation remain unchanged.

Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed that Russians and Ukrainians are one nation and all of Ukraine is effectively Russian as part of efforts to justify his continued conquest of Ukraine.

The West has failed to convince Russian President Vladimir Putin to reevaluate his theory of victory in Ukraine in the past year. Putin’s public statements indicate that he continues to assess that Russian forces will be able to win a war of attrition by sustaining gradual advances along the frontline indefinitely.

Russian occupation officials continue to advertise the deportation of Ukrainian children to summer camps in Russia. The Kherson Oblast occupation administration reported on June 16 that it plans to send over 4,000 children from 77 educational institutions in occupied Kherson Oblast to summer camps in Kaluga and Smolensk oblasts throughout Summer 2025.

Russian forces conducted an at least platoon-sized mechanized assault in the Toretsk direction on June 17. Geolocated footage published on June 17 shows that Russian forces conducted a mechanized assault west of Yablunivka (west of Toretsk) with at least three armored vehicles and four motorized vehicles, likely all-terrain vehicles (ATVs).

Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated his commitment to raising a new elite comprised of loyal veterans via the Time of Heroes federal program, which appoints veterans into positions of federal, regional, and municipal power. Putin met with Time of Heroes participants on June 11 to commemorate Russia Day and stated that he had created the Time of Heroes program to ensure that future Russia is connected to Russian veterans.

Russian forces conducted the third largest combined drone and missile strike against Ukraine since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion on the night of June 16 to 17. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched 440 Shahed and decoy drones from the directions of Kursk, Oryol, and Bryansk cities; Shatalovo, Smolensk Oblast; Millerovo, Rostov Oblast; and Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai.

Russia is attempting to leverage the Ukrainian children it has illegally deported in ongoing negotiations with Ukraine, thereby contradicting recent Russian efforts to deny and downplay the scale of its deportation campaign and confirming that Russia has indeed stolen Ukrainian children in clear violation of international law.

Russia’s consumption of its Soviet-era tank stores appears to be slowing, possibly due to Russia's increasing transition to using motorcycles and all-terrain vehicles (ATVs) on the battlefield.